When Stability Fails to Satisfy — Yet Still Holds Promise
When Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the World Trade Organization and Nigeria’s former Finance Minister, praised President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for “bringing stability” to Nigeria’s economy, it raised a troubling question: What is stability worth if it brings no relief?
“You cannot really improve an economy unless it’s stable,” she said during a visit to the Presidential Villa in Abuja. “So, he has to be given credit for the stability of the economy. The reforms have been in the right direction.”
But on the streets of Kano, Lagos, and Gombe, the word “stability” means little to families battling hunger, job insecurity, and soaring costs. “I’m hearing ‘stability,’ but at home, all we feel is empty,” said Aisha, a tomato trader in Kano. “Prices of garri have doubled, fuel nearly tripled. How is that stability?”
This disconnect between macroeconomic policy and everyday hardship is Nigeria’s most urgent dilemma. While fiscal indicators may improve on paper, many Nigerians find their lives growing more difficult.
The Numbers Stabilize — But People Still Struggle
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), economic stability refers to low inflation, consistent GDP growth, manageable public debt, and investor confidence. By these standards, Nigeria has made measurable progress under Tinubu’s reform agenda, which includes eliminating the fuel subsidy, unifying exchange rates, and monetary tightening by the Central Bank.
Inflation, which peaked at 33.7% in 2023, dropped to 22.97% by May 2025, based on data from Trading Economics. Food inflation, however, remains high at 21.14%, continuing to erode household purchasing power. The Central Bank expects inflation to fall below 20% by year’s end. GDP growth is projected at 3.4%, still below Nigeria’s 7% long-term target, while the debt-to-GDP ratio hovers around 44%.
Despite these improvements, economic gains feel distant to most citizens. But there is hope that these reforms — though painful now — will begin to bear fruit soon. As inflation eases and fiscal space expands, the possibility for targeted interventions and inclusive growth becomes more real.
Relief Still Out of Sight — But Not Out of Reach
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports that 133 million Nigerians — 63% of the population — live in multidimensional poverty. Meanwhile, the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative notes that 68% of children under 17 are multidimensionally poor, with 84% suffering from at least one child-specific deprivation.
One such case is Dorcas Simon, a mother of two in Kaltungo, Gombe State, who was featured in a June 2024 Associated Press (AP) report. With food prices surging, she could no longer adequately feed her nine-month-old twins. “Not much milk comes out… What will I give them when I don’t have food myself?” she asked.
Her story — and millions like hers — highlight the urgency of ensuring that macroeconomic reforms translate into meaningful support for the poor. But as fiscal room improves and systems are built, there is growing optimism that better days may be within reach — if the right lessons are applied.
What Other Nations Are Doing Right — And Why Nigeria Can Too
Ghana, which faced similar post-pandemic economic pressures, brought inflation down from over 40% to 13.7% in mid-2025 through tight monetary policy and IMF-backed reforms. Kenya has maintained inflation near 3.8%, supported by a digitalized tax system and stronger data governance.
While inequality still persists in these nations, their stabilization strategies have started to ease food price spikes and restore household resilience. Nigeria has the potential to do the same — and do it better — if it strengthens governance, transparency, and implementation capacity.
Safety Nets with Holes — But With Potential
Under President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, the government has launched ambitious social protection programs to cushion the impact of reforms. Over ₦297 billion in cash transfers of ₦25,000/month has been disbursed to 15 million households. There are also ₦200 billion in MSME loans, ₦75 billion for youth startups, and job creation programs like 3MTT and SUPA.
Additionally, ₦22 billion in student loans has reached over 215,000 students, alongside food aid, transportation subsidies, and support for internally displaced persons.
However, effectiveness remains patchy. In early 2024, all four major National Social Investment Programs (NSIPs) were suspended following fraud investigations. Corruption, poor data systems, and weak institutions continue to undermine progress. Yet, if these issues can be addressed head-on, the groundwork already laid may still deliver real and lasting change.
A Model That Works — and Can Be Scaled
One bright spot is the Women’s Exporters Fund for the Digital Economy, announced during Okonjo-Iweala’s visit. Nigeria was one of just four countries selected from 67,000 applicants. So far, 146 women-led businesses have received $5,000 grants, mentorship, and digital trade tools — a model of transparency and impact.
Such targeted, data-driven programs prove that, when designed well, even small-scale interventions can make a meaningful difference. Scaling up these successes could multiply impact across sectors.
From Macroeconomics to Meals — The Path Forward
For Nigeria to move beyond technical stabilization and deliver real improvements in people’s lives, policies must center on inclusion, transparency, and measurable outcomes.
Digitizing and reforming social safety nets is urgent. By integrating the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) into the National Social Register, the government can better identify and support the most vulnerable. Linking cash transfers to school attendance or health visits could enhance both relief and long-term development.
Technology must also drive accountability. Biometric IDs, blockchain audit trails, and public spending dashboards could significantly reduce leakages in aid delivery.
Fiscal priorities must shift to reflect the real needs of Nigerians. The billions saved from ending the fuel subsidy should be reinvested in community health centers, school meals, and training for climate-resilient agriculture and green energy jobs.
Transparent, honest communication is also vital. When expert praise is spun for political gain, public trust suffers. Nigerians deserve clear, truthful updates on reforms — their goals, their limits, and their timelines.
A Future Defined by Relief and Growth — Not Just Stability
Above all, progress must be measured by human outcomes, not just economic ones. Can families eat well? Can children learn without hunger? Can adults work with dignity?
Stability is a start — and an essential one. But it is not the destination. For now, Nigerians continue to wait for the relief that was promised. Yet there is hope, grounded in emerging trends, that the difficult choices made today will pave the way for inclusive growth, prosperity, and dignity tomorrow.
The journey is far from over. But with persistence, transparency, and smarter execution, it can still lead us where we need to go.